Predicting Crime with the Uniform Crime Reporting System Assignment

Predicting Crime with the Uniform Crime Reporting System - Assignment Example It is also possible to tell which states and cities are the most dangerous in terms of prevalence of crime, in particular violent crimes like murder, robbery with violence and forced rape. It must be acknowledged that nowadays data is everything regardless of one’s profession or inclination. The most important attribute of UCR is its richness in terms of data; with this data prediction becomes a walk in the park for public safety officials and law enforcement organizations. UCR also facilitates the presentation of crime rates to the American public since public safety officials and law enforcement organizations have crime information at their fingertips. Whenever it is needed they can retrieve and present it (Lynch & Addington, 2006). Question 2 In this section, I will forecast criminal activity for the country, the state of California and the city of Los Angeles. The Country In order to forecast criminal activity for the nation, I examined tables 1 and 1A. ... This shows that there has been a marked reduction in both statistics. Between 2001 and 2010, for example, the percentage change in the volume of violent crime was -13.4, while the percentage change in the violent crime rate was -20.0. A look at other crimes also shows the same trend. My forecast for the nation is therefore that the volume and rate of criminal activity will continue to reduce in the coming years (U.S Department of Justice & the Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2004). The State of California Data for criminal activity in California displays similar attributes to that of the country. Between 2009 and 2010, the percentage changes in criminal activity (ranging from violent crime to motor vehicle theft) were negative; this is a pointer to a reduction in criminal activity. As a result of this, I also forecast a continued decline in criminal activity in the state of California as years go by. The City of Los Angeles In 2010, the city of Los Angeles had high volumes and rates of criminal activity compared to other cities in California. The reason for this is that Los Angeles is the largest city in California both by area and population, and therefore statistics like these are expected. However, since the state is showing steady reduction in criminal activity, I predict that the criminal activity rates and volumes in Los Angeles will also keep reducing, even though they might still be considered high. It is worth noting that this is a common attribute in large and populous cities (New York, Chicago, Detroit, etc). Question 3 In 1950, the murder rate in the United States was 4.6 while the volume of murders was 6,932. In 2010, the murder rate was 4.8 while the volume of murders was